The Aam Aadmi Party’s resounding victory in the Punjab assembly elections has resonated across the country and political pundits have been hailing it as the beginning of the young party’s rise as a national political force that could not only be a veritable replacement of a slowly sinking and suicidally dynastic Congress but also be a viable alternative to the formidable Bharatiya Janata Party.
There is no doubt that winning Punjab is a great breakthrough for Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal and his leadership team that has never been short on well-intentioned vision and audacious ambition. There can also be no denying that having a new national-level party or a leader that has nothing to do with the BJP or Congress is a healthy sign for Indian democracy.
But these are early days yet. The AAP has a long way to go before it can get to that position and Kejriwal must also make sure that the learnings from past mistakes (especially those made during his first term in office) are never forgotten in a frenzy of aggressive nationwide expansion. Without jumping the gun, he and his team must first focus on what worked – and still works – in Delhi and how they can replicate that success sustainably in Punjab.
Notwithstanding what happened in Punjab, the BJP could not possibly be more pleased with its performance in the four other states that went to the polls last month. While political pundits continue to debate whether the results of these assembly polls can be seen as a harbinger of the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning over Uttar Pradesh in convincing fashion must have served as the ultimate confidence-booster for the saffron party. Nobody has forgotten how the BJP’s thumping victory in the 2017 UP assembly polls was followed by an even more impressive triumph in the 2019 general elections.
Besides breaking the anti-incumbency jinx in UP and Uttarakhand, the BJP retained Manipur and Goa with improved figures from the 2017 elections. Could it have asked for more?
Of course, eastern India remains unconquered territory for Team Modi. While West Bengal CM and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee failed to make any real impact with her campaigns during the latest assembly polls, she remains an insurmountable challenge for the BJP in her home state where the TMC trounced BJP 215-77 in the assembly elections last year.
Even more formidable, albeit far less confrontational, than Didi has been Odisha Chief Minister and Biju Janata Dal supremo Naveen Patnaik. Despite multiple strategies and attempts in all kinds of elections, the BJP has been unable to break into the BJD fortress that has been meticulously built by its five-time CM over the past 21 years with good governance, welfare schemes and public goodwill.
The results of the recently concluded Panchayat elections in Odisha, in which the BJD alone won nearly 10 times the number of seats that the BJP and Congress could manage combined, say more than enough about the Chief Minister’s continuously rising popularity across his state.
On the road to 2024, playing to strengths and patience will be of the essence – for the AAP as well as the BJP.
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