With Western powers obsessed with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the events in Afghanistan no more command the attention they deserve. But what is happening in the trouble-torn mountainous country should be of concern not only to its neighbours, including India, but also to the US and its allies who are busy fighting a proxy war with Russia.
There is no denying that Afghanistan is in serious trouble with its economy crumbling and law and order situation in a shambles. With a sagging economy, the nation faces the threat of a chaotic civil war which will be in no one’s interest. While the leaders currently in charge of running its affairs are yet to sort out their internal problems, the ties between Taliban-led Islamic Emirate and Pakistan are under severe strain.
Reports suggest that essential commodities in Afghanistan are scarce and prices are spiralling. People are starving and unemployment is soaring. A leading news agency of Afghanistan has estimated that the number of people losing their jobs since the Taliban takeover will go up to around 900,000 by mid-2022. The upshot of all this is acceleration of the process of human migration.
According to one estimate, more than a million Afghans migrated to Iran and other countries between October 2021 and January 2022. This could create a manpower crisis in Afghanistan whose economy has been going downhill primarily because of the poor law and order situation. Enemies of the present regime continue their terror strikes with missiles, being fired or bombs exploding at some place or the other in the country almost on a daily basis.
Will the Taliban be able to tackle the challenge posed by its rivals who are targeting even the civilian population with alarming regularity? Although the Taliban regime has the advantage of a well-equipped army, it does not have the required expertise in guerrilla warfare, which is the forte of its rivals. Hence, there is reason to worry. If the regime in Kabul crumbles, the consequences could be dangerous even for India which has so far followed a neutral policy on Afghanistan.
India has much at stake in Afghanistan. While the strategic situation of the trans-Himalayan country makes it important for India, especially what with hostile neighbours such as Pakistan and China, New Delhi also remains concerned about its business investments in Afghanistan. India was carrying out many important projects in Afghanistan when the Taliban took control of the country. New Delhi has to protect its investments in that country.
Equally importantly, India has repeatedly cautioned the Taliban regime in Kabul that it should under no circumstances allow its soil to be used for terror strikes against any nation. Afghanistan’s geographical proximity to India makes it an ideal launching pad for terrorists planning strikes against New Delhi. Hence, India has a big stake in Afghanistan, just like many Western countries that remain worried about Kabul falling into the hands of global terror lords. No one can afford to put Kabul on the back-burner.
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