The collapse of the JD(U)-BJP alliance government in Bihar was quite the shocker.
With Nitish Kumar making yet another somersault and joining hands with the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (Grand Alliance) parties – including Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress – to form a new government, speculation is rife about the renewal of efforts for opposition unity at the national level to challenge the Narendra Modi-led NDA.
Nitish, who dropped subtle hints about his national ambitions soon after his ninth swearing-in ceremony as Chief Minister of Bihar in the state capital of Patna, already appears to be positioning himself for the 2024 battle. In what is being interpreted in political circles as his challenge to Prime Minister Modi, who by all accounts will be leading the BJP from the front in the next elections, the JD (U) boss told mediapersons that Modi “may have won in 2014 but he should worry about 2024”.
But the sudden change of equations in Bihar notwithstanding, Nitish’s rather boastful comment seems to be nothing more than a case of political bravado. While there is no denying that at the moment the Mahagathbandhan with 164 MLAs in the 243-strong Bihar assembly has the political balance heavily tilted in its favour, the situation is unlikely to remain the same in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 when many other factors, not least the popularity and charisma of Prime Minister Modi, will come into play.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA had won 39 of the 40 seats it contested in Bihar, with the saffron party emerging triumphant on all the 17 seats it contested. Given that the BJP has a strong base in the state, where it is the second largest party with 77 MLAs, it is likely to fare much better in 2024 when Nitish’s betrayal should generate a sympathy wave in its favour.
As for the speculation about Nitish’s latest turnaround becoming a catalyst for opposition unity at the national level, the chances remain remote as neither JD(U) nor RJD, the two dominant partners of the Mahagathbandhan alliance, have a pan-India presence. For all practical purposes, their strength and appeal is limited to Bihar. With neither of these parties in a position to influence the outcome of elections even in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, their ambitions at the national level cannot be taken seriously.
Besides, the politics of opportunism practised by Nitish has already tarnished his image. His many U-turns over the years have earned him the derisive sobriquet of ‘Palturam’ (someone who cannot be trusted). This is in sharp contrast to the sparkling image of Prime Minister Modi. He holds the trust of millions of Indians, who have been full of praise for his programmes and policies. With 303 members in the Lok Sabha, the BJP is the strongest political party in the country today. Its tally is bound to go up in 2024, with Modi leading it from the front. As for Nitish, the more he gloats about his honourless victory, the more he will lose respect as a leader.
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