Political pundits and observers seem to be sharply divided over how Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s conviction by a Surat court in a three-year-old defamation case and his consequent expulsion from the Parliament will have an impact on the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections next year.
Thus, there are broadly two schools of thought on the issue at present.
On one side are those who are saying that this development will fire up the Grand Old Party’s cadre, unite the nation’s opposition parties against the Modi government like never before and serve as their ultimate weapon against the BJP behemoth in the big battle of 2024. Experts from this school of thought, who are mostly from the Western and so-called liberal media, also aver that such a united opposition will now be able to project the Lok Sabha elections next year as a battle for democracy.
There is no doubt that Rahul’s disqualification as a Lok Sabha MP and the eviction notice that he received soon after has charged the Congress cadre across the country. The well-organised and well-coordinated manner in which they are carrying out protests against the government had not been seen from India’s oldest political party in a long, long time.
The meeting of top opposition leaders that the Congress is set to convene in a few days is also expected by the party’s supporters to be of much consequence, especially after a number of political leaders decried the legal and political troubles surrounding Rahul.
However, most political analysts from the other school of thought, those who make the bulk of mainstream media in India, express serious doubts about whether this wave of vocal support across party lines for Rahul over a particular issue is going to translate into solid and sustainable electoral alliances for Congress, let alone a united front at the national level under the Gandhi scion’s leadership.
It is also equally unlikely that such a united opposition, if that all comes into being, will be able to convince the vast majority of India that democracy is indeed facing a threat in their nation and that they should get behind a leader who has never held public office.
After all, it was the people of India who overwhelmingly voted in support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP in the 2019 general elections – the one in which Congress won just 52 seats, less than 10 percent of the number needed to claim the post of Leader of the Opposition. Given the continued all-round development that the nation has seen under Prime Minister Modi’s visionary leadership since then, there is little to suggest that the public will feel any differently about him when going to the polls next year.
Also, considering the global circumstances (read Covid-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war), India’s neighbourhood situation (read long-standing Chinese and Pakistani belligerence) and internal security challenges (read the rise of Khalistani separatist leader Amritpal Singh in Punjab), the Indian electorate – in all likelihood – will go for someone who has proven credentials as a strong leader.
No prizes for guessing who could that be.
Comment here