The BJP loses its cloak of invincibility despite emerging victorious in the Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections
The two high-profile assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana have made two things pretty clear – the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost its aura of invincibility despite emerging as the winner while opposition parties in both states made significant gains, and that the Indian voter is discerning while voting for assembly and parliamentary polls, differentiating between local and national issues.
Even though the political landscape in Maharashtra has nothing in common with Haryana, both states shared the same outcome in terms of the losses suffered by the BJP and the gains made by the opposition, particularly regional parties.
The Haryana Assembly poll verdict threw up a hung House, with all political party failing to reach the majority mark, in contrast to Maharashtra where the BJP-Shiv Sena combine gained majority to retain power.
It is surprising that just five months after the Lok Sabha victory, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has suffered a loss in its vote share in both Haryana and Maharashtra. Political observers believe voters in both states focused on local issues and rejected the BJP government’s hyper-nationalistic campaign which centred on its August move of abrogating Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity remains intact nationwide, he is unlikely to remain the primary vote-catcher in state assembly elections. The BJP will now need local leaders who can compete with regional satraps like Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar and Jannayak Janata Dal (JJD) chief Dushyant Chautala who campaigned vigorously and enjoy mass following unlike Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis or Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar.
Also, the BJP’s shrill campaign against opposition parties and muscular nationalism has not resonated with voters in the two states who were more worried about job losses, the economic slowdown and the agrarian crisis.
While the government seems to have woken up to the economic slowdown, it’s effectiveness in tackling the issue will be crucial in the coming assembly elections.
In Maharashtra, where 288 seats were at stake, the BJP won 105 seats while its ally Shiv Sena won 56 seats, taking their combined lead tally to 161 seats. From the Opposition camp, the Congress won 44 seats while its alliance partner NCP won 54 seats.
Going by the results and trends, the BJP’s tally is lesser by 17 seats compared to its performance in the last assembly elections held in 2014 when it got 122 seats. The Shiv Sena too saw a dip in its fortunes as it had won 63 seats last time.
The NCP improved its performance significantly as it had got 41 seats in the last assembly elections, while the Congress had got 42 seats. This is because of NCP chief Sharad Pawar who campaigned aggressively, even standing in pouring rain while invoking Maratha pride in Satara.
While the BJP has failed to repeat its 2014 performance in Maharashtra, it still remains the most popular party in the state. The major loss is in Haryana, where the party vote share has been drastically reduced in comparison to the Lok Sabha polls.
Held in April-May, the BJP’s vote share was 58 per cent and it won all the ten Lok Sabha seats in the state. However, the vote share has come down to 36.49 per cent in the assembly elections, which though is three per cent more than the 2014 polls.
In Haryana, the ruling BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 40 seats, but fell short of the halfway mark by 5 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, showed significant progress from its performance of 15 seats in the last assembly elections by winning 31 seats this time around.
The BJP got 36.49 per cent votes, while the Congress bagged 28.08 per cent votes. The nearly year-old JJP was victorious in 10 constituencies, making it the kingmaker, along with 7 Independents. Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), which ruled the state for four times, managed just 1 seat.
This election marked the comeback of former Haryana chief minister Bhupender Singh Hooda who had been previously sidelined by Rahul Gandhi. Congress loyalists now hope the return of the old guard under party chief Sonia Gandhi will help the party deliver better results in the coming elections.
The BJP was hoping to raise its tally in Haryana so the outcome of the assembly polls is being seen as a setback for the party, which had won 47 seats in the last state elections in 2014. This result is nothing short of a shock, specially since the party had won all the 10 seats in the Lok Sabha elections held just five months back.
The Congress has performed well this time but had failed to open account in the April-May Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP had formed the government in Haryana for the first time in 2014, when it improved its tally from 4 in the previous elections. The INLD, which ruled the state the last time from 2000 to 2004, stood second with 19 seats in the last assembly elections and was the main Opposition party in the outgoing House.
JJP was formed in December last year after Dushyant Chautala, grandson of four-time Haryana Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala, split from INLD following a bitter fight in the family.
Even though most political pundits are counting the losses in BJP’s win in these assembly elections, the party still sees the polls as a victory and is trying to boost the morale of its party workers. Now all eyes will be on Jharkhand and Delhi which will go to polls in less than six months. The BJP’s performance in these coming assembly elections will be crucial to see if it can speedily check its political slide as opposition parties show signs of revival.
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