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With good growth expected in coming years, the Indian economy is predicted to be the fifth-largest economy of the world
With farmers set to intensify their agitation across the country, Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has made a smart move
The farmers’ protests, probably the biggest organized demonstration in India in recent times, have entered their 12th day and the
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With good growth expected in coming years, the Indian economy is predicted to be the fifth-largest economy of the world by 2025 and the third-largest by 2030, according to an economic research report released by the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The report considered the growth trends of 193 countries and predicted their economic growth till 2035, after observing the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on them.

The report stated that the pandemic has restructured the global economy by giving more momentum to the Asian economies while dragging the European economies to a more stagnant phase. As a result, Asian countries such as China and India will fare better as compared to the European economies in the long run. The pandemic has put many hurdles on India’s road to economic growth. While the Indian economy had become larger than Britain’s in 2019, the UK has now inched past India and will remain ahead till 2024 before being overtaken again by India in 2025.

This is quite a deviation from the growth graph that IMF had projected for India in the pre-pandemic phase when the South Asian giant had emerged as the fifth largest economy.

The Indian economy suffered major setbacks during the peak of the pandemic when it declared a national lockdown and ended up seeing an unprecedented decline in economic activity and mobility. The silver lining for the country’s economy has been the sharp recovery it has registered in the June-September period which has brought down its contraction from the double-digit 23.9 % to 7.5%.

The Reserve Bank of India remains optimistic about the country’s economic revival and has predicted that the economy will show a positive rate of growth by March 2021. With enhanced rates of recovery and government measures to safeguard the economy, the Indian economy is expected show a robust rate of growth in the 2021-22 fiscal year. While India is showing healthy rates of economic recovery, it will still take a few years to clock in a growth rate of 7-8%. Therefore, India’s plans of becoming a US$5 trillion economy will take a little longer to be realised.

Coming back to the CEBR report, it stated that the pandemic might have been the final blow to the Indian economy’s growth targets as the country was already struggling thanks to a fragile banking system, new reforms introduced by the government and a slowdown in the global trade sector. While India has become a lower middle-income country this year, its prospects still look bright for the decade ahead.

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With farmers set to intensify their agitation across the country, Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has made a smart move that will not only earn him the goodwill of the farming community at large but also silence critics who have accused the Biju Janata Dal of tacitly supporting the BJP by not taking active part in the nationwide shutdown (Bharat Bandh) that farmers organizations and trade unions called in protest against the Centre’s new farm laws.

His government decided on December 9 to move the Centre, seeking implementation of MS Swaminathan Committee recommendations with regard to the minimum support price (MSP) of crops. Dr. Swaminathan, one of the most distinguished agricultural scientists of the country who chaired the National Commission on Farmers, had recommended that “MSP should be at least 50% more than the weighted average cost of production”.

The Patnaik government has been in favour of implementation of Dr. Swaminathan’s MSP formula right from the beginning. The state cabinet’s resolution to draw the Centre’s attention to the issue was, in a way, reiteration of an old demand that is in focus again thanks to the nationwide agitation of farmers. As it is, the Chief Minister has consistently maintained that MSP is an important tool of income generation for farmers and hence must be fixed in a holistic manner so as to make farming profitable. It should also safeguard farmers against the inherent risks of the profession.

The Odisha government’s concern for farmers is well known. In the past 20 years of Patnaik’s rule, the government has initiated a number of pro-farmer measures, including expansion of large as well as medium and small-scale irrigation facilities. Energization of lift irrigation points across the state has been one of the major achievements of the BJD government.

But none of these measures can match the popularity of Krushak Assistance for Livelihood and Income Augmentation (KALIA) scheme, which was launched two years ago. Aimed at reducing poverty and enhancing the level of agricultural prosperity, this scheme has been a big hit among farmers, mainly because of the cash deposits made in their bank accounts by the government. The other important feature of KALIA, a scheme named after the popular sobriquet of Lord Jagannath, is that it encompasses within its ambit not only farmers of different categories but also landless labourers.

At the heart of the scheme lies the Chief Minister’s desire to empower the farmers with options that can enable the growth of agriculture in Odisha. For example, enhanced accessibility to suitable financial services promises to ensure agricultural productivity and increase the income of farmers, particularly the small and marginal land holders.

The scheme also has provisions for extending crop loans to vulnerable landless labourers, cultivators and share croppers at zero percent interest. KALIA makes a direct attack on poverty by raising the standard of living of farmers at all levels and investing even landless labourers with dignity.

While the five-time Chief Minister has always been on the side of farmers, his government’s latest move on MSP has further strengthened his pro-farmer credentials.

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The farmers’ protests, probably the biggest organized demonstration in India in recent times, have entered their 12th day and the participating farmers, mostly from Punjab and Haryana, are far from done with raising their voices against the new farm laws. Instead, the protests have turned into a movement, with many known faces as well as commoners joining the farmers at the Singhu and Tikri borders of Haryana where the farmers are waiting to enter Delhi under their Dilli Chalo movement. 

 

The leaders of participating farmers’ associations have been engaging in multiple rounds of talks with the government in a bid to resolve the issues that the farmers have raised in their demands. However, despite those talks, the protests continue as the government is stuck in a deadlock with the farmers. With all its efforts at dissuading the farmers from protesting going in vain, it looks like the government is lost in a labyrinth of the farmers’ demands. 

 

The protestors, however, claim their demands are quite simple. All they want is for the new farm laws to be repealed and the previous MSP regime reinstated.

 

Amidst the ongoing Bharat Bandh today (December 8), the government maintains that the complete rollback of the new farm laws is not possible. It has, however, asked the farmers to join another round of talks tomorrow after the recently held fifth round of talks also failed to lead to a resolution. 

 

The farmers and their families continue to camp at the Haryana-Delhi borders after the Delhi and Haryana police have stopped them from entering the territory of Delhi. Keeping in view the safety and health of the more vulnerable groups, the government has recently requested the farmers to send the protesting women and the accompanying children back to their homes.

 

Support for the protests is coming from many quarters. Popular Punjabi singer and actor Diljit Dosanjh recently announced a donation of Rs 1 crore to the protesting farmers so they can afford winter garments and stay protected against the harsh winter of the north. Olympic medal winner Boxer Vijender Singh has also openly backed the farmers, saying that he will return the Rajiv Gandhi Khel Ratna if the government does not meet the demands of the farmers. Other celebrities, sportspersons, singers, and performers from Punjab and Haryana, such as Harbhajan Singh, Gurdas Mann, Ammy Virk, have also come out in support of the farmers. 

Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal also expressed solidarity with the farmers as he declared his party’s complete support for the Bharat Bandh. 

 

International support for the farmers has also been getting stronger and louder. After Canadian PM Justin Trudeau addressed the media in support of the farmers’ right to protest, the United Nations stood up for them, with the spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General saying that the people of India have the right to protest and demonstrate for their cause and the local government should let them exercise their prerogatives peacefully. 

 

Having turned into a massive campaign that the whole world is watching keenly, the farmers’ protests need to be peacefully and satisfactorily resolved at the earliest. Further escalation of this problem might have a devastating impact on the nation and the economy. 

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