Fractured opposition in both Maharashtra and Haryana work to the BJP’s advantage
A staggering 108 million voters will decide the fate of the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana on October 21 as the ruling Saffron government stands to benefit from fragmented opposition parties in the two states.
These elections are crucial as Maharashtra has the largest state economy while Haryana has the third-highest per capita income across all states and Union Territories. The main opposition party Congress is feeling the heat in both Maharashtra and Haryana as it is locked in severe infighting and many of its leaders have defected to other parties.
On the other hand, the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is upbeat about its prospects in the two states and has planned mega rallies in the coming days to be addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is touring the state extensively and Shiv Sena Supremo Uddhav Thackrey is also campaigning across the state.
While the BJP-Shiv Sena combine is aggressive in its campaigning style, the Congress, on the other hand seems to be rudderless, missing a leader who could unify the party and steer the campaign strategically.
While the Saffron parties have galvanised all units to make sure that its public meeting are successful, the Congress is grappling with internal conflict of its senior leaders and has so far been unable to get its star campaigner – Rahul Gandhi – to hold big rallies in the state.
Sources in Congress say that Rahul will campaign in the two states, but given the state of the Congress he ought to have already hit the campaign trail. There are reports that Rahul and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi will only make cameo appearances on the campaign trail.
Two of Congress’ former Chief Ministers — Prithvi Raj Chavan and Ashok Chavan — are busy in their own constituencies, Karad South and Bhokar, respectively.
Former Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde’s daughter Praneeti is also in the fray, which is keeping Sushil Shinde busy there. One of Congress’ former Chief Minister and stalwart from Konkan region, Narayan Rane has moved to the BJP. The Congress’s state party chief Balasaheb Thorat is also contesting and is unable to move around too much.
The Opposition is expected to attack the ruling BJP and the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Haryana and Maharashtra respectively on jobs and the economic slowdown facing the country.
There have been a string of high-profile desertions from the Congress and Nationalist Congress party (NCP) alliance to the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena combine. This year Congress and NCP have joined hands after five years to oust the Saffron parties.
The Congress and the NCP used to be a winning team as they had ruled the state for three consecutive terms before the Modi wave helped the Saffron parties sweep the state in 2014. The Congress now suffers from a leadership vacuum at the top.
In Mumbai, Congress leader and former leader of opposition Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil defected, former state home minister Kripa Shankar Singh quit and Sanjay Nirupam is dissatisfied and engaged in a war of words with senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge. Actress Urmila Matondkar too quit some time ago saying there was too much internal politics within the party.
Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is confident of winning a second term and state BJP chief Chandrakant Patil recently said the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is likely to get more than 220 seats given the response to the “Mahajanadesh Yatra” of Fadnavis.
The Congress’ influence in its strongholds of Vidarbha, Marathwada and Mumbai region has weakened while the NCP under an ageing Sharad Pawar is hit by allegations of corruption and criticism for practicing dynastic politics.
In Haryana, the Congress is divided into several factions between former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Kumari Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala while some in the party support former state unit chief Ashok Tanwar who recently quit the party. The division in the party has given a head start to the BJP.
Instead of uniting and giving the BJP governments a good fight, leaders of Congress units in both the states are busy fighting for influence and power within the party and weakening the party instead.
In Haryana, the Congress was exploring an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) but the latter announced its plans to fight on its own. The BSP was also upset when six of its MLAs in Rajasthan defected to the Congress, calling the party “untrustworthy” and “unreliable”.
The ruling BJP is expected to use its nationalism plank by once again endorsing its bold decision to abrogate the special status of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 in the poll bound states. Its decision to ban triple talaq will also help the Saffron party reach out to women from the minority community.
In 2014 when the BJP first came to power in Maharashtra and Haryana, it spent over 60 per cent of the total expenditure by all political parties, on publicity, travel, miscellaneous expenses and lumpsum amount to the candidates in the 2014 Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly polls, according to a report the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR).
It is unlikely that the BJP will leave any stone unturned to win the polls in Maharashtra and Haryana this time around as well. In its pursuit, the BJP is being helped by the most unlikely group: opposition parties who are yet to put their house in order and continue to be divided.
With its disoriented and faction-ridden internal politics, the Congress is proving to be the biggest ally of the BJP election after election.
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