As the U.S. and its allies condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threaten to impose stiffer sanctions against it, India has chosen to tread a cautious path. It has sought to strike a delicate balance between maintaining its longstanding strategic relationship with Moscow and New Delhi’s role in the new world order that favours the strengthening of democracies.
Thus, it has avoided publicly denouncing Moscow for its targeted airstrikes on Ukrainian cities and the virtual siege of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital city, by its forces. India chose to abstain from voting on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution against Russia. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has personally spoken to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy and assured him that India will do its best to stop this war.
India has stakes both in Russia and Ukraine. About 18,000 Indian medical and engineering students are currently based in Ukraine where 2,000 Indian citizens are also engaged in different sectors, thus contributing to the growth of the economy on both sides. On the other hand, India and Russia have a deep historical relationship and India depends a lot on Russian military hardware and technology.
Some analysts fear that the sanctioning of Russia by the Western powers in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis could affect India adversely, especially in the field of defence purchases. Further sanctions could also affect India’s overall trade ties with Russia.
Besides, pressure from the West on Russia could bring it closer to India’s adversaries such as China and Pakistan as the meeting between Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan and Russian president Vladimir Putin has shown. Equally significant is the fact that the tussle between Russia and the West has taken the focus away from India’s primary concerns in its own neighbourhood.
On the other hand, not voting with the West to condemn Russia’s actions could alienate the Modi government from Western capitals at a time when it is seeking to strengthen ties with the US, the UK and the European Union.
It is definitely a tricky situation for India. Despite its physical distance from the war zone, it cannot afford to disengage from the conflict in Ukraine. Its response to the crisis must be well calibrated and based on close monitoring of the situation on a daily basis.
But given the political maturity of Prime Minister Modi, who is now counted among the smartest leaders of the world, one can be sure that India will successfully walk this diplomatic tightrope. The priority for India at this juncture should be the safe evacuation of each of its citizens caught in the war zone and protecting its interests both in Russia and Ukraine. Being the world’s largest democracy, it should also avoid doing anything that would compromise its image as the global champion of democracy.
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